Forecasting - Clever Science or Mug's Game?!

Can you give examples of impressive forecasting that was more than luck?

What about attempts at predicting the future that have been hopeless failures? They'll be other people's examples not yours of course!

We know that people make a living out of being economic forecasters and weather forecasters so someone continues to pay them for their predictions. This is despite the fact that neither has a good track record.

Indeed, economists keep revising the figures for the last quarter; and the British weather forecaster Michael Fish once famously said there would definitely not be a hurricane before it subsequently wiped out parts of South East England.

Are market research forecasters any better? Please give us examples of accurate predictions of sales or new product launches or customer service innovations.

We often don't hear about this primarily privately commissioned research so forecasters can happily go about their business with only one thing prominent - the disclaimers in their terms and conditions.

Then there are those who operate in the glare of the public eye, such as opinion pollsters, who have a mixed record.

And what about social trends analysis? To what extent is this based on flawed linear analysis or more sophisticated forecasting techniques? Deep understanding of evolving behaviour or crystal ball gazing?

Please share your knowledge and opinions. I will facilitate and stimulate the discussion as necessary - or maybe just stand back and watch it flow!

Paul Vittles