tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14723369265804439522011-04-22T04:15:58.502+10:00TNS Australianoreply@blogger.comBlogger11100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1472336926580443952.post-67370327246579402082008-08-12T14:50:00.002+10:002008-08-12T17:01:00.075+10:00<span style="font-family:arial;">Can you give examples of impressive forecasting that was more than luck?</span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">What about attempts at predicting the future that have been hopeless failures? They'll be other people's examples not yours of course!</span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">We know that people make a living out of being economic forecasters and weather forecasters so someone continues to pay them for their predictions. </span><span style="font-family:arial;">This is despite the fact that neither has a good track record. </span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">Indeed, economists keep revising the figures for the <em>last</em> quarter; and the British weather forecaster Michael Fish once famously said there would definitely <em>not</em> be a hurricane before it subsequently wiped out parts of South East England.</span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">Are market research forecasters any better? Please give us examples of accurate predictions of sales or new product launches or customer service innovations.</span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">We often don't hear about this primarily privately commissioned research so forecasters can happily go about their business with only one thing prominent - the disclaimers in their terms and conditions.</span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">Then there are those who operate in the glare of the public eye, such as opinion pollsters, who have a mixed record. </span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">And what about social trends analysis? To what extent is this based on flawed linear analysis or more sophisticated forecasting techniques? Deep understanding of evolving behaviour or crystal ball gazing?</span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">Please share your knowledge and opinions. I will facilitate and stimulate the discussion as necessary - or maybe just stand back and watch it flow!</span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">Paul Vittles</span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/1472336926580443952-6737032724657940208?l=predictionsandcreations.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>TNS Australianoreply@blogger.com0